LG화학 20 3Q 실적 Review

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엊그제 있었던 LG화학 20 3Q 실적 리뷰를 진행하고자 한다.

먼저 20년 3Q 손익 현황이다. 하기 장표는 LG화학 홈페이지에 공식 release된 IR 자료를 그대로 인용하였음을 서두에 밝혀둔다.

 

 

이번 분기 실적 발표는 나름 여러 가지 의의가 있었다.

1) LG화학이 물적분할하겠다고 선언하고 나서의 첫 실적 발표였다는 점

2) 코로나 바이러스가 전 세계를 강타하였는데 과연 석화 주요 제품의 시황은 어떠하였는지?

3) 전지 시황은 계속 호황이었는지 여부

그렇다면 실적이 좋았을까, 나빴을까가 모두의 관심사였는데 아래 뉴스를 보고 어느 정도 예상은 할 수 있었다.

바로 사상 유례 없는 잠정 실적 발표였음.

 

뭐 이런 거다.

학생이 중간 고사 시험을 봤는데 아는 문제가 많이 나왔고 잘 봤다는 느낌이 있으니까 부모님에게 시험 잘 봤다고 먼저 말한 격이라고나 할까.

LG화학도 마찬가지.

실적이 잘 나왔으니 사상 처음으로 결산 공시 전에 잠정 실적을 발표한 것으로 이해하시면 되겠다.

이번 3Q 실적은 사상 최대 분기 매출 및 영업이익을 달성한 엄청난 성적표였다.

매출은 전년 동기 대비, 전분기 대비 모두 8% 이상 성장했고 영업이익은 무려 9천억 이상을 달성함!

영업이익률이 무려 12%!

제조업에서는 7~8% 이상 나와도 엄청난 경쟁력을 갖춘건데 무려 두 자리 이상이라니…

하나금융이 7100억 정도, 하이투자 7200억, SK증권 8500억 (제일 근사치로 보임) 로 추정했었고 컨센서스 또한 7100억 가량 이었는데 컨센서스를 무려 27% 가량 뛰어넘는 어닝 서프라이즈였음.

지난 2분기 review 때 난 아래와 같은 전망을 했는데 진짜 이 말이 현실로 이어질 줄은.

(뭐, 텔레그램 회원분들께는 에틸렌 및 PO 가격이 너무 오르고 있다, NB Latex 또한 초호황 국면이다라는 말을 여러번 했었음 – 금호석유 무조건 Buy라고 했었는데 다들 많이들 매수하셨나요???)

 

 

무엇 때문에 이런 엄청난 호실적을 거두게 되었는지 각 사업본부별 성적표를 보도록 하자.

이제 각 사업본부별 리뷰를 이어가도록 하겠음.

먼저, 석유화학사업본부임.

 

석화본부의 매출은 지난 분기 대비 약 8% 가량의 매출 신장을 기록했지만 이는 물량 증가보다는 판가 상승에 기인한 바가 더 크다.

(물론 원가 약세 지속에 따른 스프레드 확대로 영업이익률이 크게 개선된 게 컸지)

 

사상 유례 없는 스프레드 고공 행진 진행 중

LG화학은 우리 나라 No.1 석유화학 업체답게 거의 모든 제품을 취급하고 있는데 상대적으로는 PVC, ABS, NB Latex 등의 고무 / 특수수지의 선전이 이번 호실적을 이끌었다고 보면 됨.

(에틸렌에 있어서는 롯데케미칼의 엄청난 증설로 두 업체가 엎치락뒤치락 하고 있음. PVC는 LG화학과 한화솔루션이 취급하고 있으며 NB Latex는 금호석유와 LG화학이 취급 중인데 글로벌 Capa No.1이 금호석유, 3위가 LG화학임)

이번 호실적의 쌍두마차는 ABS와 NB Latex라 볼 수 있는데 ABS 업황 호황은 중국이 오토바이 운전자들에게 헬멧 착용을 의무화한 점이 수요 확대를 이끌었고 글로벌 가전의 수요 또한 생각보다 강했던 점이 ABS 가격 폭등을 일으켰다라고 보면 됨.

그리고 코로나 바이러스로 인하여 ‘니트릴 장갑’ 즉 의료용 장갑 수요가 폭발적으로 증가하면서 이에 대한 원료로 사용되는 NB Latex 수요가 엄청나게 늘었음.

아마 코로나 바이러스로 인하여 ‘위생’에 눈을 뜨게 된 사람들의 관심은 단기가 아닌, 장기로 주욱 이어지지 않을까 예상함.

 

Anyway, 석유화학본부의 매출은 2천억 좀 넘게 증가했는데 영업이익은 무려 거의 3천억 가까이 증가함.

석화 부문의 영업이익률이 20%라니 이건 무조건 시황이 좋았다고 해석할 수 밖에.

(영업력, 브랜드, 제품력 다 필요 없음. 시황이 좋아야…. ㅡ.ㅡ)

더 이상 할 말 없음.

두번째로 전지사업본부임.

 

매출은 사상 최대인 3.1조를 찍었음.

글로벌적으로 EV가 지속적으로 확산 보급되고 있기 때문에 수주 면에서 타의 추종을 불허하는 LG화학 전지 부문은 당연히 QoQ 별로 최대 실적을 찍을 수 밖에.

다만, 아쉬운 건 매출이 전분기 대비 10% 가량 늘었음에도 불구하고 영업이익률은 거의 제자리 였다는 것. (5.5% → 5.4%)

소형전지는 Tesla 향 M?? 매출 (confidential) 이 지속 확대되고 있고 시기적으로 Apple향 배터리 공급이 늘어났을 것이므로 소형전지 부문의 매출 및 영업이익률은 더 커졌을 것이라 짐작됨.

(모르시는 분들을 위하여,,,, * LG화학 테슬라향 원통형 전지 매출은 자동차사업부가 아닌 소형전지사업부 매출로 잡힙니다)

결국 이번 분기 영업이익률 flat or 감소의 범인은 바로 자동차전지 혹은 ESS전지라고 쉽게 추측해볼 수 있음.

이에 대한 자세한 분석 및 업황은 only 텔레그램에만 업데이트하는 걸로.

​​

그리고 몇몇 분들이 질문을 주신 게 있는데 아래 글로 갈음합니다.

1. 신설 법인의 대표는 누가 되는 건지? (현 전지사업본부장인 김종현 사장이 유력)

2. 직원들은 어디서 근무하죠? (여의도 트윈타워 바로 옆 IFC 파크원으로 이사가는 것 같습니다. 이미 HR 쪽에서 레이아웃 짜고 있다고 하네요)

3. IPO는 언제? (물적분할은 12/1 자로 진행, IPO는 1~2년 내로 진행하지 않을까요?)

(* 첨단소재 및 팜한농은 하기 장표로 갈음한다)

 

 

 

4분기 실적은 어떨까?

현재 10월말을 향해 가고 있는데 여전히 석화 쪽 시황은 좋으며, 가격 또한 상당히 강세를 띄고 있다.

이대로만 간다면 4Q 실적 또한 문제 없을 듯 싶다.

문제는 내년인데…

오늘은 여기까지.

Regards,

Brandon

Post Author: Brandon Kim

MONEY

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