LG화학 19 4Q 및 연간 실적 Review

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어제 있었던 LG화학 19 4Q 및 2019년 연간 실적 리뷰를 해본다.

먼저 Total Summary이다. 하기 장표는 LG화학 홈페이지에 공식 release된 IR 자료를 그대로 인용하였음을 서두에 밝혀둔다.

먼저 19년 4Q 실적 분석이다.

 

 

매출은 전 분기 (QoQ) 대비 2.4% 증가했는데 전지 부문의 고성장을 감안하면 일반적인 시각의 눈높이에는 다소 아쉬운 성적표.

영업이익 측면에서는 석유화학 시황의 부진한 흐름 & ESS 화재 충당금의 원투펀치 때문에 드이어 적자 전환!

LG화학에 있어 ‘분기 실적 적자’라는 것은 사실 있을 수 없는 일이기 때문에 좀 당황스러웠음. 오른쪽 표에 비경상손실을 제외하고 봤을 때 2천억 후반 대 흑자라고 따로 구분 표기되어  있지만 그것은 투자자들의 이해를 돕기 위함이 아닌,  LGC의 자기 위안 혹은 정신승리라고 봄이 낫겠다.

항상 10%대를 유지하던 EBITDA 또한 6.5% 가량으로 내려온 것도 불안 요소.

과거의 영광에 취할 때가 아님. LGC는 정신 차려야 함.

이제 4Q 실적을 들여다봤으니 다음은 2019년 전체 실적에 대한 리뷰이다.

 

 

전체 매출은 전년 (YoY) 대비 1.6% 성장에 그친 28.6조에 불과했음.

각 사업본부 별로 보면 더 처참한 성적표임.

10년간 LGC를 다니면서 적어도 내 기억에 기초소재사업본부의 매출이 역성장했던 케이스는 본 적이 없는 것 같음. 하지만 작년 매출이 재작년 대비 무려 1.5조원이나 감소하다니..

유일한 희망이라 할 수 있는 전지사업본부의 경우, 전년 대비 매출이 약 2조원 증가했으나 이는 투자자들의 기대에 한참 못 미치는 수치임. 증권가에서는 9조에서 Max 10조를 기대했었던 사항인데 아마 그 목표 달성은 결코 쉽지 않을 것이라고 필자는 텔레그램 및 홈페이지에서도 여러 번 강조했던 사항임.

다시 한 번 강조하지만 18년 대비 19년 매출은 2조원 가량 증가한 8.4조였으나  최소 9조 정도는 찍어줬어야 하지 않나 생각함.

사실, 매출 9조 이상을 못 찍은 이유가 여타 외부적인 요소 때문이 아닌 LGC 내부의 문제였기 때문에.

자세한 언급은 생략토록 하겠다.

첨단소재사업본부는 매출이 18년 대비 0.2조가 증가했으나 이는 과거 기초소재사업본부 소속이었던 EP사업부가 첨단소재본부로 이관되면서 매출이 증가한 거지, 첨단소재사업본부 자체로는 매출이 역성장했다고 추정해 볼 수 있음.

전방 산업인 LCD 업황이 매우 부진했었기에 이는 지극히 상식적인 추론임.

하여튼, 2019년에 있어 LG화학 각 사업본부별 실적은 매우 실망, 기대 이하라고 볼 수 있었음.

(그러니까 성과급도 안 나왔지.. -.-)

영업이익을 볼까?

여긴 더 심각한 수준임.

매해 많으면 3조, 적어도 2조원을 꾸준히 찍어주던 우등생이 바로 LG화학인데 이제는 드디어 1조원 아래로 내려 왔음.

반에서 항상 상위권에서 놀던 학생이 이젠 중위권에서 노는 모습.

석유화학 부문은 생각보다 괜찮은 숫자를 찍어줌.

연간 영업이익률이 9.1% 수준인데 국내 최대 경쟁사인 롯데케미칼의 그것이 6~7% (예상치) 임을 감안하면 매우 선방했다고 봄.

물론 제품 포트폴리오 상, 에틸렌 같은 범용 제품보다 차별화된 Specialty 제품이 롯데보다 많은 탓이겠지.

무엇보다 전지 부문이 다소 심각한데 전년보다 무려 약 6,500억원이 악화되었음.

비경상적 손실을 제외하더라도 YoY 2천억 이상이 악화됨.

이해하기 어려운 게, 매출이 2조원 가량 늘어났음에도 영업이익이 6천억 이상이 감소했다는 부분임.

설비가 늘지 않았다는 가정에서 매출만 증가했다면 가동률이 엄청나게 상승해서 영업이익이 폭발적으로 증가했을텐데 그렇진 않았다는 얘기임.

결국, 설비 투자가 늘어났기 때문에 감가상각비도 늘고 매출 또한 증가하긴 했다는 얘기인데  LGC 케이스의 경우 매출 증가분보다 설비 투자가 더 많았다는 얘기임.

‘미래를 대비한 선제적 투자’라는 좋은 말로 포장할 수도 있겠지만 필자가 파악한 바로는 자원의 효율적 배분이 이루어지지 않았으며 투자가 효율적으로 집행되지 않았다는 결론이 나옴.

최소한의 투자로 라인이 다소 빡빡하더라도 효율성 있게 운영했다면 투자 금액도 줄어들고 감가상각비도 줄일 수 있으며, 가동률이 높아져서 단위당 고정비가 감소하여 영업레버리지 효과를 누릴 수 있는 게 제조업 프로세스인데 LG화학은 이 같은 평범한 진리를 망각한 듯. 아님 그럴 능력이 안 되서…

결국, 필요 이상으로 투자 집행이 많이 이루어졌고 투자 (설비 및 인원 투입 등) 가 많이 이뤄졌다면 공장의 효율성 등이 증가했어야 하는데 지금의 폴란드 공장 상황은 무엇으로 설명할 수 있을지?

그리고, 경쟁사인 삼성SDI는 매출도 어느 정도 잘 찍어주면서 영업이익률 또한 거의 5% 가까이 나왔는데 이는 또 어떻게 설명할 수 있을지?

예전의 난징 Plant처럼 본사 생산, 기술, QA, 설비 엔지니어들 장기 출장 때려박는다고 해결될 일인가?

왜 같은 일들이 계속 되풀이되는 지를 LGC Management에서는 심각하게 고민할 필요가 있음.

꼬집고 싶진 않지만 LGD 광저우 OLED도 마찬가지임.

LG그룹 전통인 듯.

그리고 폴란드 공장 정상화는 당초 2020년 상반기라고 했던 것 같은데 이제는 하반기 얘기도 솔솔 들리는 상황.

할 말 더 있지만 친정(?)을 너무 까는 것 같아서 여기까지 하겠다.

자세한 내용은 텔레그램에 오픈하는 것으로.

이제 각 사업본부별 리뷰를 이어가도록 하겠음. 먼저 아직까지는 매출 대부분을 책임지고 있는 석유화학사업본부임.

 

 

과거와 달리 특별한 점은 없음.

영업이익률 8.1%면 요새 같은 시황에서 매우 선방한 실적이며 이는 업스트림 시황은 매우 어려운 반면에 다운스트림 시황은 상대적으로 견조하기 때문에 가능한 실적임.

( * Downstream이란 기초 유분을 다시 분해해 만드는 폴리에틸렌, 폴리프로필렌, SM, EG 등의 제품을 만드는 공정을 의미함)

다만, 2020년이 중요한데 아마 19년보다 훨씬 안 좋을 것임.

아마 영업이익률 5% 사수하는 것도 어렵지 않을까 개인적으로 보고 있음.

두번째로 전지사업본부임.

 

 

매출은 거의 2.5조를 찍었음. 직전 분기 대비 10% 이상 늘어난 성적표. 더구나 ESS 발화 이슈로 인하여 ESS사업부 국내向 매출은 거의 기여하는 바가 없었을테니 상대적으로 소형전지 및 자동차전지에서 분전했을 듯.

아래 캡처는 내가 3분기 실적 분석 시 언급했던 내용이다. 

결국 나와 하나금융의 예측이 맞았음.

 

Anyway, 매출은 기하급수적으로 아니, 폭발적으로 늘고 있음.

2020년~21년 사이에 석유화학사업본부와 전지사업본부의 매출 비중이 거의 같아짐.

(15~16조 정도에서 골든크로스가 나올 것으로 보고 있음)

2020년부터는 유럽 시장의 성장폭이 가장 클 것으로 기대되는 데 무엇보다 환경 규제 이슈 등으로 Volkswagen向, Audi, Porsche, Renault 향 매출이 폭발적으로 늘어날 전망임.

이에 대한 뉴스는 지속적으로 텔레그램에 업데이트 예정임.

세번째, 네번째는 첨단소재사업본부, 생명과학 / 팜한농인데 하기 표로 대체함.

 

 

 

첨단 소재 쪽의 LCD 편광판 쪽은 매각 혹은 제각 이슈가 있어 관심 밖이며 당초 한국의 Monsanto가 되지 않을까 기대를 품었던 팜한농의 실적은 자꾸 뒷걸음 중.

 

<세계 최대의 종자기업 몬산토를 인수한 독일의 Bayer. 네, 맞습니다. 독일 분데스리가 바이엘 레버쿠젠의 그 ‘바이엘’이 맞습니다>

결론은 어쨌든 ‘Battery’임.

다들 아시겠지만 최근 Tesla는 그야말로 미친 듯한 상승을 보여주고 있음.

 

 

어제 20% 가까운 상승을 기록했으며 시간 외에서도 강한 흐름.

이제 시총 기준으로 Tesla 위에는 오직 안전의 대명사 ‘Toyota’만이 자리함.

테슬라가 왜 갈 수 밖에 없는지, 테슬라에 원통형 배터리 공급을 시작한 LG화학 관련 뉴스들은 나의 텔레그램 구독자 여러분들은 이미 잘 알고 있음.

최근, LG화학 및 중국 CATL의 미친 듯한 상승도 Tesla발 태풍에 편승하는 것.

 

 

 

금일 LG화학의 상승은 아무 것도 아님. CATL의 경우 1달동안 30% 넘게 올랐음.

요즘 같은 난세의 장에서는 어느 종목을 들고 있느냐에 따라 수익률이 하늘과 땅 차이임.

이런저런 이슈들 때문에 여러 분들의 눈과 귀가 다소 어지럽고 혼탁하지만 변하지 않는 건 기업의 본질 및 Business model, 그리고 미래에 대한 insight임.

이건 본인 스스로 타고 나던지, 후행적으로 학습해야 하는 문제인데…

쉽지 않음.

다들 현명한 투자 하시길 기원하겠습니다.

이것으로 LG화학 19 4Q 및 2019년 실적 리뷰를 간단히 마친다.

Regards,

Brandon

 

# 멀리 도미니카공화국, 에티오피아, 핀란드, UAE, 산마리노 등에서 접속해주시어 감사합니다!

Post Author: Brandon Kim

MONEY

65 thoughts on “LG화학 19 4Q 및 연간 실적 Review

    박민진

    (2020-02-04 - 9:26 오후)

    안녕하세요?

    실적리뷰 잘보 았습니다.
    작년부터 미래산업인 2차전지사업에 관심을 갖게되어
    LG화학에 투자하고 있습니다.
    삼성SDI와 고민했었는대 초보자의 관점에서는 LG화학을 더좋게봐서
    배당도 생각해 우선주에 비중70%로 집중 투자 했습니다.

    기초적인 아이디어는 여러가지 포토플리오 사업과 캐시카우로 오히려 안정적이게
    미래산업인 배터리산업을 발전시킬 수 있다고 생각했는대
    생각보다 주가가안좋고 배당도 컷 되어 매우 실망했고 오늘이야 매입가에 도달했습니다. (분산투자했는대 평단이좀 높았습니다.

    현직자 이셨던 브랜드킴님의 리뷰를 보니 공부가 많이부족했다는걸
    느끼게 되었고 부정적인면만 보이게 되는대
    초보적인 질문이지만 단순하게 비중을 줄이는게 낳을지 조언 여쭤보고 싶습니다.

    * 텔레그램 구독자이고 브랜드킴님의 인싸이트를 배우면서 열심히 공부할것입니다.

      Brandon Kim

      (2020-02-05 - 9:16 오전)

      정석대로 하셔야죠~ 어느 정도 비중을 덜어내고 현금을 좀 더 확보하심이 맞는 듯 싶습니다. 단, 테슬라의 호조로 당분간 더 오를 거라 봅니다.

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