LG화학의 적정 가치 및 Valuation은?

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작년 11월말에 아래 링크와 같은 포스팅을 한 적이 있었다.

http://www.heybrandonkim.com/?p=3174

“2차전지 업계 현황 체크 및 향후 전망”이란 타이틀이었는데 내가 대놓고(?) 밀었던 삼성SDI 뿐만 아니라 2차전지 관련주들의 주가가 현재 크게 움직이고 있음. (아래는 01/16 종가 기준)

 

 

이에 따라 2차전지 대장주라 할 수 있는 LG화학에 대한 뉴스가 끊임없이 쏟아지고 있는데 LGC의 적정 밸류에이션에 논해 보는 시간을 갖을까 한다.

최근, 2차전지 시장을 뜨겁게 달군 뉴스는 바로 아래에 있는 LG화학의 배터리 사업부문 분사 소식일 것이다.

 

 

내가 지속적으로 텔레그램엔 업데이트한 바 있지만 현재 LG화학 내부적인 Cash Flow가 그리 원활하지 못한 상황이다.

 

 

몇년 전, 석유화학 호황 시절만 하더라도 1년에 2~3조원 씩 버니까 예전 CFO였던 조석제 사장 또한 그리 큰 역할이 없었지..

그런데 전지 사업이 본격적으로 커지면서 투자가 조 단위로 들어가고 석화 시장이 좋지 않은 국면으로 흘러가니까 현금 흐름을 면밀히 살필 수 밖에 없는 상황.

결국, LG생건 CFO였던 정호영 사장 (현재 LG디스플레이 대표이사) 을 불러들여 LG화학 현금 흐름을 챙기라고 했던 것으로 본인은 이해하고 있음.

하여튼, 배터리 분사설은 끊임없이 제기될 수 밖에 없으며 이를 뒷받침하는, 기존과는 다른 LG화학의 Stance에 주목할까 한다.

먼저, 완성 자동차 메이커들과의 합작이다.

그동안 LG화학은 기술유출 우려 및 LG 특유의 스타일 및 기타 사유들로 인해 합작 및 Joint venture 설립을 꺼려했다.

하지만, 단독 법인 설립은 이러저러한 리스크가 있음.

1) 혼자 독박으로 투자해야 하며 이익 및 손실 또한 혼자 짊어짐 (투자금 大)

2) 자동차 회사들이 배터리 (셀) 를 사준다는 보장이 없음

하지만 합작을 하게 되면, 투자금도 줄어들고 그들이 안정적으로 배터리 셀을 구매해준다는 장점이 있다.

 

 

<뒤에 정용욱 자동차전지사업부장 및 경영전략 담당 강XX  전무 등이 보인다>

분사가 될 지 말지에 대해 내가 언급하는 것은 적절치 못한 것 같다.

하지만, 다음 설명을 보면 앞으로 어떻게 흘러가게 될 지 이해가 되실 듯.

01/16 종가 기준, LG화학의 시총은 23.2조 수준.

생각보다 낮은 LGC의 시총은 암울한 석화업계 분위기 및 수익성이 쉽사리 개선되지 못하고 있는 전지사업본부의 현재를 반영하고 있는 듯 하다.

그렇다면, 전부는 아니지만 매출의 80% 가량이 2차전지에서 발생하고 있는 삼성SDI의 시총은 얼마일까?

01/16 종가 기준으로 18.4조.

매출액, PER, PBR, EBITDA 이런 거 따지지 말고 단순히 산술적으로 마이너스 해보면 (삼성SDI의 2차전지 부문과 LG화학의 2차전지 시총이 같다고 가정했을 때) LG화학 석유화학산업본부의 시총 가치는 불과 4.8조라는 것인데 이해가 되지 않는 수준.

LG화학 기초소재 부문의 시총이 적절한지 롯데케미칼과의 비교를 통해 알아보자.

최근, 미친듯한 에틸렌 증설로 인하여 에틸렌 CAPA 만큼은 국내 No.1 자리에 오른 롯데케미칼. (450만톤 = NCC 310만톤 + ECC 140만톤, 글로벌 12~13위권이며 참고로 에틸렌만 봤을 때  LGC는 20위 수준)

 

 

여기에 현대오일뱅크와의 합작사 (HOB) 에서 나오는 물량 75만톤 및 말레이시아 타이탄 물량 100만톤 가량 + 미국 ECC 추가 증설분까지 감안하면 2023~24년 기준 에틸렌 Capa는 600~700만톤으로 글로벌 6~7위권으로 도약 가능. 

여기서 우려되는 사항이 롯케에서 의욕적으로 추진하고 있는 업스트림 계열의 에틸렌, PE, PP 등이 글로벌적으로 증설 부담이 높은 축에 속한다는 것. 

규모의 경제를 이룬다는 시도는 좋은데 시장에 쏟아지는 제품들로 인해서 제품 가격이 크게 하락한다면 손실은 그대로 롯데케미칼의 몫일 것.

그래도 향후 업스트림의 올레핀, 아로마틱 계열의 매출 일변도에서 벗어나 다운스트림으로의 확장 및 스페셜티 제품, 그리고 롯데첨단소재와의 합병은 긍정적으로 본다.

어쨌든, 석유화학 올인 구도롯데케미칼 시총은 현재 7.5조 수준.

19년 매출은 약 15조 수준이며 영업이익률은 약 7.2%.

 

반면에 LG화학의 석화 부문은,

 

 

19년 매출 기준 15조 가량에 영업이익률 8.6% 수준.

매출은 큰 차이가 없지만 영업이익률이 1.5% 가량 차이가 나는 것은 롯데케미칼이 보유하지 못한 PVC 및 예전에 코오롱에서 인수한 SAP 부문 같은 스페셜티 같은 고부가가치 제품 비중이 상대적으로 높은 LGC의 다변화된 포트폴리오가 힘을 발휘하는 것으로 풀이됨.

그렇기에 LGC의 석화 부문의 시총 가치는 롯데케미칼의 현 시총인 7.5조보다 더 비싼 프리미엄을 줘야 한다고 봄.

롯케 시총이 7.5조이므로 LGC의 석화 부문은 보수적으로 봐도 8~9조 정도의 가치는 부여해 줘야겠지.

이제 다시 한 번 LG화학 전지 부문의 시총을 따져보도록 하자.

또다른 비교군이 될 수 있는 중국 CATL의 시총은 어떨까?

 

 

금일 위안화 환율 대입해보면, (168.86원 / 1CNY)

 

금일 종가 기준, CATL의 시총은 약 43조원 수준.

다시 한 번 언급하지만 삼성SDI의 시총은 18.5조.

LGC 전지 부문의 시총은,

SDI << LGC << CATL 

상기와 같은 위치에 있다고 본다. (LG화학은 인정하기 싫겠지만)

왜냐면, CATL은 중국 정부의 직/간접적인 지원과 가격경쟁력을 무기로 최대 시장 중 하나인 중국 시장, 미국 시장, 유럽 시장을 가리지 않고 공격적으로 진입하는 반면에, 한국 업체들은 사실상 중국 시장으로의 진입이 요원하기 때문이다.

(* 그렇기에 LGC가 중국 지리자동차와 손을 잡은 것은 당연한 수순임)

중국 시장에 진입하고 못하고의 차이도 당연히 밸류에이션에 영향을 미치는 만큼, LGC에 CATL보다 높은 밸류를 부여하기는 어렵다고 봄. 

DB금융투자의 한승재 연구원이 추산한 LGC 각 부문의 가치를 참고해 보자.

 

 

석화 (기초소재) 부문의 가치를 약 8.1조원으로 추산.

LGC로서는 롯데와 금호석유의 20년 EV / EBITDA 의 평균치를 기준으로 삼았다는 점에서 자존심이 상할 듯.

하지만 엄연히 제품군이 다르고 고부가가치 제품이 높은 LGC 석화 시총을 극도로 보수적으로 추산했다는 인상을 지울 순 없음.

남은 것은 LGC 전지 부문의 시총 계산인데,,,

2020~21년 매출액 및 수주액, 외부에서 바라보는 LGC와 SDI와의 차이 등을 감안했을 때 LGC 전지 부문의 시총은 SDI의 그것보다는 높음을 인정하지 않을 수가 없을 듯 하다.

전지 부문의 가치는 2020년 CATL의 예상 EV/ EBITDA의 23.6배를 곱한 25조 가량으로 산정함.  

그래서 내가 계산한 LGC의 적정 시총은,

석화 부문 8조 + 전지 부문 24~25조 = 32~33조 정도라고 봄.

(이는 정보전자소재 및 팜한농 / 생명과학의 가치 3.5조를 제외한, 극도로 보수적으로 추정한 수준)

이 계산이 어느 정도 reasonable하다고 봤을 시, 현 엘지화학의 시총 23.5조는 적정 가치 대비 약 30% 정도 할인된 수준.

LG화학 입장에서는 당연히 LG화학 내에서 가칭 ‘LG배터리’를 별도로 분사 후 IPO하여 시장으로부터 ‘제값 받기’를 통해 투자금을 더 끌어와야겠다는 try를 할 수 밖에 없는 분위기가 만들어지고 있다고 본다.

또한, SDI의 주식 및 시총이 커질 수록 LGC 또한 뒤에서 회심의 미소를 짓겠지..

가칭 LG배터리의 가치를 시장에서 더 높게 인정 받을 테니..

IPO 방법은 아마도 인적분할보다는 물적분할이 유력하지 않을까 본다.

IPO 하는데 시간은 걸리더라도 LG화학의 100% 자회사로 둘 수 있고 대주주인 (주)LG의 지배력 또한 큰 손실없이 지켜낼 수 있음.

아마도, LG그룹의 스타일 상 물적분할이 제일 유력하지 않을까 싶다.

(가까운 사례로 약 10년 전에 LG화학은 현재 LG하우시스를 ‘인적분할’한 사례가 있으나 지속투자가 들어가야 하며 산업 특성 상 물적분할이 가능성이 더 크다고 봄)

이 밖에 Apple 및 Tesla 소식 등이 있지만 이는 공개적인 석상에서 오픈하기는 어려워 어제 텔레그램 방에만 오픈했음.

연초부터 미 – 중 무역협상 1단계 타결 및 유동성 증가로 인해 글로벌 증시 분위기가 고무적인데 돈 버실 수 있을 때 많이 땡기셨으면 합니다.

오늘은 여기까지.

Regards,

Brandon

# 파라과이, 에콰도르, 파푸아뉴기니 등에서 접속해 주신 분들, 감사합니다^^

Post Author: Brandon Kim

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