2차전지 현황 업데이트 (+ 간단한 Q&A)

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엊그제 삼성전자가 52주 신고가를 돌파하면서 KOSPI 지수도 어느새 2090선까지 올라왔다.

1800까지 열어놔야 한다고 언론에서 떠들던 게 불과 한 달 전 일인데 어느새 종합주가지수가 2100을 바라볼 줄이야… 

이번에 확실히 깨달은 건,

1) 비관론이 팽배할 때 오히려 주식은 담아야 한다는 것

2) 한국 증시는 아무래도 삼성전자 흐름과 그 궤를 같이 한다는 것

→ But, 디램 가격 하락이 주춤해진 건 맞으나 고객사로의 출하 (shipment)가 QoQ, YoY로 늘어났는지는 좀 더 면밀한 체크가 필요함.

왜냐면 대한항공 (Korean Air는 부동의 글로벌 top-tier 항공화물운송 carrier. 이는 삼성전자, SK Hynix, LGD 등의 주요 IT기업의 국적이 South Korea에 기인한 바가 크다) 의 이번 3Q 실적이 부진할 것으로 예상하는 리포트가 나왔음. 그 한 가운데에 화물 부문 실적 부진이 자리함. (뭐, 이미 텔레그램 회원분들껜 알려드린 내용임)

 각설하고 오늘 텔레그램 회원 분에게 메일이 왔다.

내 채널을 처음부터 구독하신 분이고 현직 증권사에 재직 중이신 분인데 종종 메일을 주시곤 하는데 오늘따라 더 반가웠다. 2차전지 관련해서 이것저것 물어보셨는데 같이 공유드리면 좋을 것 같아 좀 더 살을 붙여서 글로 남긴다.

현재 주식시장에서는 소형전지의 둔화, ESS화재와 sk이노베이션과 Lg화학의 소송이슈로 한국 2차전지 섹터가 투자심리가 많이 악화된 것 같습니다.

​현장에서 그래도 보고 듣는 부분이 계실 것 같아서 질문드립니다. 간단하게라도 답변주시면 정말 너무 감사드리겠습니다.

​Q1. lg화학과 Sk이노베이션의 소송관련하여 폭스바겐 등 완성차 업체의 수주잔고가 향후 중국 catl이나 일본 파나소닉 등으로 넘어갈 가능성이 있다는 기사들이 있는데 혹시 어떻게 보시는지 궁금합니다.

A1:  수주 관련해서는 Binding Contract (* 구속력 있는 계약) 로 맺어져 있기 때문에 특별한 상황이 발생하지 않는 한, 파기하기 어렵습니다.

완성차 업체는 혹시나 배터리 공급이 shortage 나지 않을까 하는 우려, 배터리 업체는 안정된 공급처 확보라는 지상 과제가 있기에 배터리 공급처 변경 혹은 교체는 그리 쉬운 문제는 아닙니다. 

이 바닥이 그때그때 만들어서 파는 붕어빵 비즈니스가 아니기 때문이죠. 

특히, 배터리 주문이 넘쳐나고 있는 현 상황 & Volkswagen PJT의 저마진 구조 때문에 물량을 잃는다한들 LGC 입장에선 손해보진 않는다 봅니다.

LGC는 VW 말고도 다양한 고객처를 확보해 두고 있으며 지금 이 순간에도 수주는 계속되고 있습니다.

다만, 물량이 중국 업체로 Shift 될 경우 Major 고객 확보가 절실한 SKI에겐 치명타일 순 있겠네요.

이번 다툼이 소모전 양상으로 계속 흘러갈 경우 양 사가 손해 보는 건 맞습니다. 중국의 CATL이 무섭게 치고 올라오고 있기 때문이죠. 

(CATL의 5년짜리 주가 흐름. 우리나라의 KOSDAQ에 해당하는 ‘창업판’에 상장되어 있는데 내국인만 거래 가능 ㅜㅜ)

그렇기에 제가 계속적으로 강조했듯이 무리한 수주 활동을 하지 않고 있는 삼성SDI에 더 높은 점수를 주고 있는 이유이기도 합니다.

Q2. 소형전지 중 전동공구 부분의 성장이 둔화되고 있어서 소형전지갸 약화되고 있는 흐름인데.. 이것이 계속해서 둔화되실 것이라고 보시는지..

A2: 이 질문은 제가 텔레그램에서 이미 언급한 내용이기도 합니다. Bosch, TTi, Stanley Black & Decker로 대표되는 글로벌 전동 공구 메이커들의 재고 과잉 부담은 빠르면 올해, 늦어도 내년 초엔 어느 정도 일단락되리라 보고 있습니다.

크게 우려할만한 사항은 아닙니다.

무엇보다 소형전지의 다양한 고객 & Application의 demand는 아직도 Strong한 편입니다.

​Q3. ess화재로 인해 lg화학과 sdi의 ess 매출 회복이 쉽지않은 것으로 현재는 흘러가는데 향후에 어떻게 보시는지 입니다.

​A3: 이번에 다시 제기된 이슈의 배터리 공급처는 애석하게도 LGC입니다. 기사를 읽어보면 SOC Level을 95%로 설정했다고 하는데 이해할 수 없네요… 95%까지 상향해도 된다고 가이드라인을 줬다고 하는데 그렇게 급할 필요가 있었을까 하는 게 제 생각입니다. 아직 최종 분석 및 결과가 나오진 않은 사항이라 제가 왈가왈부하는 건 좀 조심스러운 사항인데 ESS Biz가 재개되는 현 시점에 다시 한 번 사고가 발생한 것은 분명한 악재입니다.

결국, ESS 매출처가 훨씬 다변화 되어 있고 매출 volume이 보다 큰 삼성SDI 쪽을 제가 손들어줄 수 밖에 없는 게 이런 포인트이기도 합니다.

도움이 되셨는지 모르겠습니다.

궁금하신 사항 있으시면 연락 주시기 바랍니다.

감사합니다.

Regards,

Brandon

Post Author: Brandon Kim

MONEY

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