삼성전자의 스마트폰 ODM Biz 확대가 의미하는 것은?

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지난 주에 이런 타이틀의 기사가 떴다.

그야말로 엄청난 뉴스가 아닐 수 없는데 (IT 투자하시는 분들은 당연히 알아야 하는…) 이에 대해 자세히 분석하는 글이 없는 걸 보고 매우 실망스러웠음.

뭐 IT, 특히 스마트폰 Biz를 직접적으로 handling 하지 않았던 분들에게는 어렵거나 생소한 영역일 수는 있다.

하지만 이 뉴스를 보고도 아무 감흥이 없다는 주식투자자들이 있다면 나는 이 분들께 감히 ‘스마트폰 부품 관련주 투자하지 마세요’ 라고 권하고 싶다.

이유는 하기에 설명토록 하겠다.

Anyway, SEC의 ODM Biz 확대가 국내 스마트폰 부품 산업에 어떠한 영향을 미칠지 파악하기에 앞서 우선 SEC IM 사업부 현황부터 짤막하게 언급하고자 한다.

불과 얼마 전까지만 하더라도 SEC는 모든 스마트폰을 직접 생산했다.

이를 inhouse (자체 생산, 내재화) 라고 하는데, 직접 생산하기 때문에 스마트폰에 들어가는 모든 자재를 직접 sourcing (구매 및 조달) 하는 것 또한 당연한 흐름. 물론 직접 생산하기에 일정한 품질 수준 유지 (→ 불량으로 인한 브랜드 이미지 저하 최소화)는 장점임. 

삼성 휴대폰 공장은 원래 국내, 중국 텐진 및 후이저우 (폐쇄 중), 베트남, 브라질 등에 있었는데 이제는 한국 구미와 인도, 브라질 그리고 전체 휴대폰 생산의 절반 이상을 베트남에서 진행 중인 상황이다.

(아래는 2016년 자료인데 이 때는 삼성이 4억대 생산 Capa를 보유했던 시점이라 현재와는 Gap이 있음)

SEC의 ODM Biz 확대 결정은,,,

한국 → 중국 → 베트남으로 Main 생산 site를 계속적으로 이동했음에도 불구하고 휴대폰 원가를 일정 부분 이하로 낮추는 것에 대해 한계를 느꼈으며 또한 Market share 확대를 위한 불가피한 결정이었다고 본다.

왜냐면 인건비 등의 주요 고정비 항목 및 R&D cost는 그렇다 치더라도 Chipset, GPU, LCD, baseband, 배터리 등의 스마트폰 주요 top 5 BOM의 단가만 합치더라도 꽤 되는데 SEC IM사업부 전체의 판관비 및 인건비를 스마트폰 원가에 녹인다면 과연 단가경쟁력이 있다고 할 수 있을까라는 근원적인 질문을 던져보면 답이 없다는 결론에 도달하기 때문이다.

중저가 시장에서 경쟁하려면 최소한 $300 이하에 단가를 맞춰야 하지만 삼성전자의 고정비가 비싸기 때문에 중저가 스마트폰 시장에서 경쟁이 안되므로  중국 시장 점유율 또한 5% 이하일 수 밖에 없음.

(상기 자료에서도 나와있듯이 SEC의 $300 이하 스마트폰 판매 비중은 75%임. 이 시장을 유지 혹은 확대하려면 가격경쟁력 확보는 필수임 → ODM Biz 확대가 유일한 답)

그런데 이 같은 현상이 향후 최대 격전지가 될 인도 시장에서도 재현될 가능성이 있음.

그렇기에 삼성이 그동안의 stance (in-house)를 버리고 ODM biz를 하려 한다고 필자는 생각한다.

이제 ODM이 뭔지 알아보자.

ODM의 ‘D’는 design임. 위탁, 단순 하청 생산이 아니라 주문자의 요구에 따라 업체가 주도적으로 제품 설계 및 부품 소싱, 생산을 하게 된다는 건데 휴대폰 주요 ODM 업체는 중국 업체가 대부분.

여기서 잠깐 중국 ODM 업체를 소개해볼까 한다.

1, 2위 순위가 조사기관마다 업치락뒤치락 하는 것 같은데  Wintech과 Huaqin이 대표적인 업체임.

(예전에 LGE 상대할 때 Arima 상대로 영업했었는데 현재는 많이 고꾸라졌네..)

한 해 글로벌 스마트폰 시장 규모가 12~15억대 정도인데 이 두 ODM 업체가 거의 2억대를 생산하고 있는 걸 보면 결코 작은 규모가 아닐 수 없음.

두 업체는 주로 Xiaomi와 Oppo, Lenovo 등의 ODM Project를 수주하면서 성장해 왔으며 최근에는 삼성전자와 협력을 모색하며 더 큰 ‘규모의 경제’를 실현하려 하고 있음.

이들 업체의 순이익률은 5% 이하에 불과한데 어느 정도 수량 이상을 Guarantee 받아야만이 수익을 낼 수 있으며 (군소거래선의 작은 물량 PJT은 생산 안해줍니다..) 따라서 삼성 같은 대형거래선과의 협력은 그들에게 엄청난 기회가 아닐 수 없음.

(최근 6개월 만에 두 배 오른 wingtech의 주가. 왠일인지 오늘 상한가 기록!)

 (사실, SEC보다 LGE와 윙텍 간의 협력이 조금 더 빨랐다는 사실! 브랜드파워 및 원가경쟁력이 열위인 LGE의 이 같은 방향 전환은 충분히 합리적이라 봄)

 어쨌든, SEC는 이미 작년부터 A6s 모델을 Wintech과 협력하여 ODM biz 진행하고 있으며 A10s 또한 윈텍에서 진행 예정.

(LCD에 TLC 社, 카메라에 Sunny Optical 등 중국산 제품을 채용한 게 눈에 띈다)

어쨌든, 삼성이 앞으로 중저가 스마트폰 대부분을 inhouse 하지 않고 ODM 으로 전환한다고 한다면 ODM 업체가 결국 부품 소싱을 직접 진행하는 것을 의미한다.

이게 핵심임.

여러번 언급했지만 SEC의 휴대폰 1년 총 판매량이 어림잡아 3억대.

기사 보면 ODM biz를 1억대까지 늘릴 수 있다고 나와있는데 (텔레 회원 분들에겐 삼성전자 내부 stance를 따로 말씀드렸음) 이는 엄청나게 큰 수치이자 쇼킹한 일이 아닐 수 없음.

좀 오버해서 말하자면 앞으로 SEC IM 구매는 3억대 스마트폰에 해당하는 부품을 소싱하는 게 아닌, 2억대 부품을 소싱하면 되며 나머지 1억대에 해당하는 부품 소싱은 중국 ODM 업체가 알아서 하면 그만이라는 것.

물론 핵심 부품인 Chipset (퀄컴 칩,엑시노스 등의 삼성전자 칩), memory, Battery, IC 등은 본사에서 직접 지정해주겠지만.

졸지에 국내 업체들은 관심도 없고 그동안 알지도 못했던 중국 Local ODM 회사들에게 영업하게 생겼음.

영업이야  결국 이런저런 방법을 통해 들이대면 되겠지만 무엇보다 중국 ODM 업체가 요구하는 단가를 국내 스마트폰 부품 업체가 맞출 수 있을지가 제일 key point라고 보며 이 단가를 쉽게 맞추기란 어려울 거라 본다.

가격을 못 맞춘다면 해당 부품 공급 수혜는 중국 부품 업체가 누릴 것이고 국내 스마트폰 부품 업체들은 수주 감소 → 가동률 저하에 따른 수익성 저하 등으로 이어지는 Bad cycle에 직면하지 않을까 싶다.

ODM Biz 확대는 주로 중저가 스마트폰에 해당하는 영역이므로 이 같은 변화에 영향을 받는 회사인지, 받지 않는 회사인지를 면밀히 검토한 후에 스마트폰 부품 관련주에 투자하는, 본인들만의 선구안이 무엇보다 절실하게 요구된다고 봄.

(→ High-end 스마트폰 向 판매 비중이 높고 해당 부품 내 높은 share를 보유하고 있으며 기술 리더십을 확보한 회사)

할 말 더 많지만 오늘은 여기까지.

Regards,

Brandon

Post Author: Brandon Kim

MONEY

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