카메라 모듈 회사 review

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요즘 다시 한 번 카메라 모듈 주식들의 흐름이 겨울 칼바람같이 매섭다.

주가 그래프 잠깐 보고 가자.

먼저 파워로직스는 오늘 52주 최고가를 경신한 흐름이다.

원래 이 주식은 기관의 수급에 따라 움직이곤 하는데 오늘 메릴린치에서 매수 주문이 많이 들어온 모습이다. 당분간 쉽게 흐름이 꺾이진 않을 듯 하다. 

올해 매출 1조 이상에 (내부적으론 1.1~1.2조 정도 보고 있더라..) 영업이익 500~700억 정도 가뿐히 찍어줄 것 같은데 시총은 오늘 기준 4,500억 정도. 좀 있으면 5천억 넘어서겠네.. 이제는 소형주가 아닌 최소 중형주 레벨에 들어서는 느낌?

이에 따라 시장의 주목도 조금씩 받고 있는 듯한 모습이어서 마치 나만 알고 있던 단골집을 남들에게 모두 오픈한 듯한 기분?

(그럴만하지.. 난 작년부터 카메라 모듈 주식 눈여겨봐야 한다고 혼자 떠들곤 했었다. 텔레그램에서 ㅎㅎ)

두번째로 엠씨넥스.

엠씨넥스는 그저께와 어제 흐름이 상당히 좋았고 오늘은 그냥 soso한 흐름.

오늘 종가 기준 시가총액이 4,424억으로 시총으로 봤을 땐 파워로직스와 거의 대동소이하다. 신기하네..

증권가에서 보는 2019년 예상 지표 또한 매출 1조에 영업이익 600억 정도..

예상 PER이 7~8배 정도면 너무 싸지 않나?

세번째로 ‘카메라 Named’라 할 수 있는 코스닥 대표 기술주 파트론.

파트론은 기술력도 좋고 내부 구성원 (특히 임원)도 삼성전자 출신들이 상당히 많다. 거의 삼성 계열사라 봐도 좋을 정도. (여기까지만 하겠다)

파트론 시총이 오늘 종가 기준으로 9,200억 정도.

올해 예상 매출 및 영업이익은 1.2조 & 1,000억 가량 보는 것 같음. (증권가 추산) 순이익은 700억 정도 보니깐 PER은 13배 정도 쳐주고 있음.

파트론이 대장주니까 Valuation을 좀 더 후하게 쳐주는 듯. 당연히 그럴수밖에.

세 회사의 차이카메라 모듈 외 사업군인데,

파워로직스 – 2차전지

엠씨넥스 – 자동차용 카메라모듈, 액츄에이터, 생채인식 모듈 (지문인식, 홍채인식)

파트론 – FoD, ToF (3D 카메라의 일종) 의 main vendor 역할

올해~내년 장사까지는 문제가 없다는 게 본인 판단이다.

왜냐면 지금 현재 삼성전자 스마트폰의 포트폴리오에서 싱글카메라 채택 비율이 아직도 50% 이상임.

2020년에는 중저가 모델에도 죄다 듀얼 혹은 트리플카메라 이상이 채택될 예정임.

→ 결국 카메라 갯수 증가 및 화질 증대 Needs로 P와 Q 모두 상승 가능!

삼성이 작년, 그러니까 2018년에 휴대폰을 3억대 팔아치웠고 혹시나 올해 혹은 내년 장사를 못해서 10% 이상 demand가 빠져도 카메라 갯수는 그 이상으로 증가하는게 눈에 보이는 흐름임.

세계 / 국내 경제 엉망이다, 거지같다 라고 각 언론 매체마다 도배를 하고 있는데 이렇게 P와 Q가 동시에 증가하는 Business는 거의 없지 않나 싶은데.. 혹시나 있으면 댓글로 알려주세요~ 투자에 참고하겠습니다 ㅎㅎ

2020년 이후에 파워로직스는 2차전지에서 본인들 입지를 어디까지 다질지가 관전포인트가 할 수 있겠고 엠씨넥스는 전장용 카메라 모듈 매출을 더 끌어올려서 매출 다변화를 할 필요가 있음. 지금도 삼성전자 내 카메라 모듈 벤더들이 득실득실하니까. 

 그밖에 나무가, 캠시스 등이 있는데 이는 나중에 별도로..

여담으로 삼성 스마트폰이 아주 잘 팔리고 있으며, 앞으로도 그럴것 같다고 한다. 보통 제조사들은 Carrier라고 부르곤 하는, 그들의 고객인 통신사로부터 주문을 3~6개월 선행으로 받곤 하는데 벌써 PO / FCST가 늘었다고 하네.

(가투소에서 삼성 스마트폰에 대해 저주를 퍼붓는 분 있던데~ 갤럭시 10 판매 초기에 폰이 잘 팔린다는 건 언론의 왜곡이고 삼성의 언플이다 하면서~)

여담으로,,,

더구나 미 – 중 무역분쟁에 따른 Huawei 제재로 인해 삼성전자 IM 부문이 최대 수혜를 입을 것이란 예측들이 많은데 실제 그 같은 흐름이 펼쳐지고 있다.

(* 유럽 통신사들, 프랑스 Orange 및 영국 Vodafone 등의 발주가 늘었고 앞으로도 FCST 계속 늘어날 듯)

왜냐면 애플은 애초에 Huawei와 경쟁 상대가 될 수 없음. 폰 가격대가 완전 다르니까.

애플은 완전 High-end이고 화웨이는 Mid-high level 인데 겹칠 수가 없지. 

화웨이 P,  Mate가 삼성 갤럭시 Flagship (Galaxy S, Note Series) 겹치고 Honor Series는 갤럭시 A, M 과 겹치기 때문.

더구나 화웨이가 강세를 보이는 Region 또한 유럽, 아프리카, 중동으로 이 시장은 삼성 IM의 또다른 안방이기도 함.

이렇게 되다 보니 화웨이 제재로 인한 반사이익은 삼성 IM이 보는게 맞을 듯.

Vivo, Oppo는 아직도 name value가 부족하고 중국 내수 매출 비중이 더 높음.

(남미는 상대적으로 LG전자가 선전 중, 그래서 브라질 프로축구팀 유니폼 보면 종종 LG Logo를 찾아볼 수 있음. 이때는 네이마르 나오기 전인데 네이마르 전의 최고 천재라 할 수 있는 파투가 바로 상파울루 출신임)

어쨌든 삼성 폰이 잘 팔릴수록 이에 탑재되는 카메라 모듈 출하량 또한 늘어나므로 (벌써 2만번 넘게 강조한 것 같은데 요즘 스마트폰은 듀얼 or 트리플 카메라이므로 스마트폰 하나에 카메라가 최대 5~6대 들어감) 그냥 뭍어놓고 있어도 좋고 적당한 시기에 차익실현해도 되고.

오늘은 여기까지.

Regards,

Brandon

Post Author: Brandon Kim

MONEY

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