삼성SDI 20 3Q 실적 Review

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요즘 이런저런 투자 건들이 있어 좀 늦게 삼성SDI 20′ 3Q 실적 발표에 대한 리뷰를 진행합니다 (죄송 -.-)

​첫 장부터 살펴 보자.

 

일반적으로 실적이 가장 좋다고 기대되는 3분기 실적 및 재무 현황이다.

지난 분기는 코로나 바이러스라는 사상 유례 없는 팬더믹 현상을 겪었음에도 실적은 나쁘지 않았던 경우였고 이번 3분기는

a) 시장의 높아진 기대치를 얼마나 충족시키느냐

b) 물적 분할 및 호실적이 일찌감치 예상되어 시장의 관심이 쏠린 LG화학 대비 얼마만큼의 퍼포먼스를 보여줄 수 있는지

이 두 가지가 나름의 관전 포인트였지 않나 생각한다.

일단, 매출은 QoQ 약 24% 증가, 영업이익은 QoQ 대비 1200억 이상 증가한, 훌륭한 숫자를 찍어주었다.

(전자재료 부문의 영업이익률은 14~17% 정도로 가정하면 약 1200억 정도, 이를 제외하면 전지 부문에서의 영업이익은 약 1400억 이상. 지난 분기의 영업이익이 거의 BEP ~ 100억 정도였다는 걸 감안하면 아주 훌륭한 성적표임)

전지의 매출이 약 2.38조. 영업이익이 대략 1400억이라면 영업이익률은 대략 약 6%.

투자할 게 많고 가격 경쟁이 치열한 현 시국임을 감안했을 때 6%면 나쁘지 않은 성적표.

다만, 경쟁사 LG화학 대비 뚜렷히 구분되는 경향이 있기에 이 숫자가 주는 의미를 잘 살펴봐야 함.

아래는 키움증권의 사업부별 매출 추정 자료이다. (타 증권사의 추정도 크게 나르지 않았음)

 

삼성SDI의 큰 폭의 매출 향상은 전적으로 ‘소형전지사업부’의 공로였음. (구관이 명관??)

PLC 상 성숙기에 접어들었다고 볼 수 있는 소형전지 부문은 거의 3천억 이상의 매출 증대를 이끌어낸 반면, 전체 시장 파이의 규모가 엄청나게 커지고 있는 중대형전지 (EV+ESS) 는 2천억 증가에 불과한, 상대적으로 부진한 성과를 기록함.

이는 무엇을 의미할까?

먼저 소형을 보자.

소형전지사업부의 매출이 큰 폭으로 증가한 사유는 아래 자료에도 나와 있듯이,

1) 파워툴, Mobility 향 매출 증가 (원통형)

2) 주요 고객 신제품 출시 + 계절적 성수기 진입에 따른 파우치 매출 증가

이 두 가지 포인트라 볼 수 있고 나 또한 동의함.

이럴 수 밖에 없는 게, 현재 돌아가고 있는 2차 전지 시장과도 연동이 된다.

먼저 전동공구 시장에 대해 짤막히 소개하자면,,,

a) 파워툴 메이커에는 Bosch, Stanley Black & Decker (SBD), TTi, Makita, 계양전기 등이 있음

b) 이들 Application의 특성은 단시간에 엄청난 고출력을 요해서 동력 공급은 유선에 그쳤었음

c) 고성능 2차전지가 개발됨에 따라 유선 → 무선으로의 엄청난 전환이 이뤄졌고 순식간에 배터리 기준, 수억개의 시장이 새로생기게 됨

d) Bosch는 그동안 삼성그룹과 긴밀한 관계를 맺어왔고 몇년전에는 SDI와 합작을 했을 정도로 가까웠음.

e) 전동공구시장에 처음 뛰어들었던 것은 SDI가 맞고 LG화학은 후발주자였음

2008년에 설립한 삼성SDI와 보쉬의 합작회사인 SB리모티브는 2012년에 청산되었고 이 시점 이후부터 Bosch에도 LG화학이 진입하게 됨.

다시 앞으로 돌아가보면,

전동공구시장에 나름 힘을 쏟았던 LG화학은 현재 Tesla라는 엄청난 고객을 맞이하게 되면서 선택의 기로에 놓임.

(* LGC의 경우 H 계열 셀들의 생산은 주로 오창 공장에서 이뤄지며, M 계열은 주로 중국 난징 공장에서 생산되죠)

Capa는 정해져 있고 배터리를 공급해달라는 고객들의 요청은 늘어만 가고 있고…

(Price, Liability, Quality, Delivery 등의 평가 요소를 충족시킬 수 있는 셀 메이커가 전세계에 몇 없음)

LGC는 결국 결단을 내렸음. 테슬라에 ‘선택과 집중’을 하기로.

몇몇 소수 언론 보도에도 나와 있듯이 테슬라를 위해 오창 라인은 개조 완료 혹은 개조 진행 중에 있으며, 전동공구향 출하는 줄여나갈 수 밖에 없는 상황.

시장 상황이 이렇게 돌아가니 삼성SDI의 전동공구향 매출은 큰 폭으로 증가할 수 밖에 없고 (반사이익) 업계 얘기를 들어보니 E-Bike, Scooter 등의 신규 제품이 나오고 있어서 중국쪽 매출 또한 나오고 있다고 하던데 그 이상은 텔레그램에만 오픈하는 것으로.

그리고 파우치 배터리의 경우 삼성전자의 갤럭시20 FE 및 애플 아이폰12 등 신제품 출시에 따른 효과를 누리는 것으로 볼 수 있음.

(4Q 매출은 다시 꺾일 것으로 개인적으로 보고 있음)

중대형 전지 또한 전분기 대비 2천억 이상 매출이 늘었는데 개인적으로는 이 정도 가지곤 부족하다 본다.

이는 물론 저수익 프로젝트엔 Bidding 하지 않는다는 원칙에 충실한 삼성SDI의 선별적 수주 전략이, 전기차 매출이 본격적으로 개화되는 현 시점에 직접적인 영향을 주고 있다고 보여지며 이러한 경향은 앞으로 더욱 뚜렷하게 나타날 것이다.

(상대적으로 저가 수주에도 유연한 모습을 보여왔던 LG화학은 매출이 앞으로 급속도로 커질 전망. 수익성은? 음…)

하지만 사업을 좀 더 길게, 보수적으로 보고 있는 삼성의 일관된 전략은 특정 미래 시점엔 더 큰 빛을 발할 수 있다고 개인적으로 보고 있음.

더 중요한 건 분기에 2500억 이상을 벌어들이게 되면서 내년 영업이익은 사상 최초로 1조원을 돌파할 수도 있다는 기대감이 생겼다는 게 아닐까?

​(지난 분기 리뷰 때 3Q 영업이익은 2천억 이상 찍어줘야 한다고 했는데 이를 meet한 게 생각보다 크다고 봄 – 시장의 신뢰)

 

다음은 사업부 별 영업 실적 및 전망이다.

아마도 4분기 실적은 조금 보수적으로 봐야하지 않을까?

1) LGC와 다르게 수주 가뭄에 시달리고 있음

2) 신제품 출시 효과 사라지는 중

3) 전동공구 향 매출은 다시금 줄어들 것 (아마 거의 확실할 겁니다. 재고 비축 끝났기 때문에)

왜냐면 거의 일정했던 3분기 실적 전망에 비해 4분기 실적 전망은 각 증권사마다 천차만별임.

이베스트 : 적자 전환

키움증권: 2천억 이상

교보증권: 1800억 가량

한화투자증권, DB: 적자 전환 (1천억 가량)

극명하게 엇갈리는 4분기 영업이익 실적 때려맞히기 게임에서 과연 승자는 누구?

전자재료 쪽은 아래 장표 한 장으로 갈음함. 별 내용 없음.

 

여러가지 노이즈로 인해 시끄러운 LGC와 달리 삼성SDI 주가는 상당히 선전하고 있음.

이는 무엇을 의미하며 앞으로는 어떨까?

오늘은 여기까지.

Regards,

Brandon

Post Author: Brandon Kim

MONEY

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    Natashupl0q

    (2021-01-14 - 3:49 오전)

    Perfect update of captcha regignizing package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl1l

    (2021-01-14 - 4:29 오전)

    Perfect update of captchas solving software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    Natashupl8t

    (2021-01-14 - 4:54 오전)

    Revolutional update of captchas recognition package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl0b

    (2021-01-14 - 5:58 오전)

    Incredible update of captcha recognition software “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl0y

    (2021-01-14 - 6:19 오전)

    Revolutional update of captcha solving package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl4n

    (2021-01-14 - 7:00 오전)

    Incredible update of captchas solving package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl9r

    (2021-01-14 - 7:19 오전)

    Perfect update of captcha solution package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Lolita.tikhonovapl1k

    (2021-01-14 - 7:58 오전)

    Perfect update of captcha regignizing package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

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    and more than 12000 another size-types of captchas,
    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM software: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other software.

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    Natashupl8t

    (2021-01-14 - 8:18 오전)

    Revolutional update of captcha solution software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    Natashupl7k

    (2021-01-14 - 8:57 오전)

    Perfect update of captcha regignizing software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl0r

    (2021-01-14 - 9:16 오전)

    Incredible update of captcha solution software “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Natashupl9h

    (2021-01-14 - 9:39 오전)

    Revolutional update of captchas breaking package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other programms.

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    Natashupl6r

    (2021-01-14 - 10:38 오전)

    Absolutely NEW update of captcha breaking package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    Lolita.tikhonofapl1u

    (2021-01-14 - 10:59 오전)

    Revolutional update of captchas solution package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    and more than 12000 another types of captchas,
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    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other programms.

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    Natashupl2q

    (2021-01-14 - 11:43 오전)

    Incredible update of captchas regignizing package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

    Captcha solving of Google (ReCaptcha-2 and ReCaptcha-3), Facebook, BitFinex, Hotmail, Mail.Ru, SolveMedia, Hydra,
    and more than 12000 another subtypes of captchas,
    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
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    Natashupl8q

    (2021-01-14 - 12:04 오후)

    Absolutely NEW update of captcha solving package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    and more than 12000 another types of captcha,
    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other programms.

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    Natashupl1m

    (2021-01-14 - 12:23 오후)

    Absolutely NEW update of captcha solution software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    and more than 12000 another types of captchas,
    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other programms.

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    masha.tikhonovapl5e

    (2021-01-14 - 1:05 오후)

    Incredible update of captchas regignizing software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

    Captchas recognition of Google (ReCaptcha-2 and ReCaptcha-3), Facebook, BitFinex, Bing, Mail.Ru, SolveMedia, Hydra,
    and more than 12000 another subtypes of captcha,
    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other software.

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    Natashupl5e

    (2021-01-14 - 1:22 오후)

    Absolutely NEW update of captchas solving package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

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    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM software: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other programms.

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    Natashupl3g

    (2021-01-14 - 1:44 오후)

    Revolutional update of captchas regignizing package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    and more than 12000 another categories of captchas,
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    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM software: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other software.

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    Natashupl6b

    (2021-01-14 - 2:06 오후)

    Absolutely NEW update of captcha solution package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    lena.tixonofapl4r

    (2021-01-14 - 2:51 오후)

    Absolutely NEW update of captcha regignizing package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    masha.tixonovvapl2b

    (2021-01-14 - 4:11 오후)

    Perfect update of captcha recognition software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

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    Lolita.tikhonofapl1b

    (2021-01-14 - 4:31 오후)

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    Natashupl5p

    (2021-01-14 - 5:57 오후)

    Revolutional update of captchas regignizing software “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Nika.tixonofapl0b

    (2021-01-14 - 6:40 오후)

    Revolutional update of captcha breaking package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil”:

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    Natashupl6k

    (2021-01-14 - 7:23 오후)

    Incredible update of captcha breaking software “XEvil 5.0”:

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    Lolita.tikhonovvapl5g

    (2021-01-14 - 7:45 오후)

    Revolutional update of captcha regignizing software “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

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    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other software.

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    Lolita.tikhonofapl3a

    (2021-01-14 - 8:30 오후)

    Incredible update of captcha solution package “XEvil 5.0”:

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    with highest precision (80..100%) and highest speed (100 img per second).
    You can use XEvil 5.0 with any most popular SEO/SMM programms: iMacros, XRumer, SERP Parser, GSA SER, RankerX, ZennoPoster, Scrapebox, Senuke, FaucetCollector and more than 100 of other software.

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    Natashupl4d

    (2021-01-14 - 8:53 오후)

    Absolutely NEW update of captchas breaking package “XRumer 19.0 + XEvil 5.0”:

    Captcha solution of Google (ReCaptcha-2 and ReCaptcha-3), Facebook, BitFinex, Microsoft, MailRu, SolveMedia, Hydra,
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