Apple 및 Apple 관련 vendor들 투자 포인트 정리

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중국 서부의 우한이라는 도시에서 창궐한 한 바이러스 때문에 전 세계가 휘청거리고 있다.

과거, 중세 유럽 인구의 1/3이 페스트로 죽었다던데 우리는 현대판 페스트라 할 수 있는 코로나 바이러스를 통해 새삼 전염병의 위력을 몸소 체감하는 중.

 

 

투자자들은 항상 이러한 ‘변수’에 촉각을 곤두세우곤 하는데 이러한 빅 이벤트는 당연히 그들이 보유한 자산에 영향을 미치기 때문이고 이러한 이벤트를 계기로 자산 리밸런싱에 나서기도 한다.

나 또한 예외가 아니어서 이번 코로나 때 평가 손실 상태였던 미국 주식 / 유럽 주식은 플러스 전환하였고 일부 종목은 매도, 일부는 계속 홀딩 중에 있다.

 

 

위는 미국 계좌, 아래는 유럽 계좌인데 이는 텔레그램 회원 분들께 5월 초에 공개했던 포트 현황. 지금은 더 올랐음. 더구나 고환율 덕에 환차익은 덤.

언택트 때문에 배달 업계가 초호황을 달리고 있어서인지 딜리버리 히어로 주가는 정말 무서울 정도로 상승하고 있는 중.

 

 

 

얘기가 잠깐 밖으로 샜는데 작년 말까지만 하더라도 난 삼성전자 휴대폰 쪽 부품사 투자가 옳다고 믿고 있었고 투자 또한 그러한 방향으로 전개하였다.

하지만 이번 코로나 사태를 계기로 그러한 view을 ‘수정’했고 올 초부터는 Apple 및 관련 부품사에 투자하는 게 더 나은 수익을 거둘 것이라고 텔레그램 회원 분들께도 지속 어필하고 있는 중이다.

실제로 애플 및 관련 부품사들의 주가 흐름이 상대적으로 더 강하게 나타나고 있고 있음.

이에 애플 및 관련 vendor들에 대해 심층 분석해보고자 한다.

먼저 Apple이다.

 

  1. Apple (feat. 삼성전자)

 

 

High-end 스마트폰 영역에서 그야말로 타의 추종을 불허하는 기업.

애플 그 자체로 볼 수 있는 스티븐 잡스 타계 이후 관리형 CEO인 팀 쿡이 집권하면서 내리막길을 걸을 것이라고 점치는 전문가가 많았으나 애플은 그러한 예상을 비웃기라고 하듯 꾸준히 잘 나가고 있음.

무엇보다 애플의 강점은 미래에 대한 준비가 아주 탄탄하다는 점임.

결국, ‘insight’가 남다르다는 건데 이게 아주 중요함.

과거 맥킨토시 이후 한 물 갔던 애플을 다시금 살려놨던 mp3, 즉 아이팟이 그 수명을 다 할 무렵, 애플은 아이폰을 내놨고 이는 지금까지도 전 세계 시장을 뒤흔들고 있다.

이제 스마트폰 시장이 성숙기에 접어들면서 아이폰 그 다음이 누구냐라고 전문가들이 의문을 제기했을 때 애플은 콩나물 이어폰이라 비난 받았던 에어팟을 출시했는데 이게 또 대박을 터트림.

 

 

게다가 하드웨어에 편중된 매출 구조를 타파하고 소프트웨어 / 서비스쪽 매출 쪽을 꾸준히 강화한 결과 이쪽 매출은 지속 우상향 중이다.

 

 

애플 TV, 애플 카드 (payment), 애플 뮤직까지… 그 끝은 도대체 어디니?

 

 

그동안 난 애플 iOS 생태계의 사이즈가 안드로이드에 비해 너무 작다고 생각했고 (결속력이나 팬덤은 그리 중요하지 않다 생각했었음) 결국 장기적으로는 안드로이드 세력에 의해 무너질 것이라 봤는데 적어도 단시간 내에는 이러한 일들이 벌어지지 않을 것 같다는 결론을 내렸다.

실제로 아이폰, 아이패드, 맥북, 에어팟 및 기타 애플 관련 서비스를 사용하는 지인들 얘기 들어보면 이 사람들은 절대 안드로이드 폰으로 갈아타지 않겠다고 하더라…

이쯤되면 아이폰 생태계의 결집력? 결속력? 혹은 중독성은 인정해주는게…

또한, 미국 청소년들의 맹목적인 아이폰 사랑은 눈여겨 볼 대목임.

 

블로터 기사인데 미국 10대들의 90% 가량이 아이폰을 쓰고 있으며 Next 도 결국 아이폰일 것이라고 대답함. 안드로이드로 갈아타겠다는 대답은 8%에 그침.

이 같은 예상이 실제로 이어진다면 안드로이드 쪽 최대 set maker인 삼성은 곤혹스러울 수 밖에 없음.

실제로 삼성 휴대폰의 북미 지역 market share는 계속 떨어지고 있는데 삼성에 있어 북미는 절대 포기할 수 없는 시장임.

미국 시장은 미국 시장 자체로만 판단되는 게 아니라 결국 미국에서 살아남고 자리를 잡아야 글로벌 브랜드로 성장할 수 있기 때문에 왠만한 브랜드들은 미국 시장에 사활을 건다.

하지만 미국 시장에서 버틴다는 게 생각보다 쉽진 않지. 그래도 돈 많은 삼성은 가능하고 그래야만 하고.

하여튼 미래의 주축 세력이 될 미 10대들이 애플을 맹목적으로 사랑한다는 것 자체가 애플로썬 엄청난 자산임.

애플 주가를 볼까?

아래는 6개월 주가 흐름인데 어느새 코로나 주가 이전으로 거의 회복 완료.

 

 

신제품 아이폰SE 반응은 나쁘지 않은 편이며, 하반기에 출시될 아이폰12 소식 또한 이런저런 채널을 통해 나오고 있다.

아이폰SE 배터리는 LG화학이 독점 공급 중에 있으며, 아이폰SE가 두 가지 버전이 아닌 한 가지일 것임은 텔레그램을 통해 이미 올 초에 아래와 같이 구독자분들께 공유드린 바 있음.

(추가로, 디스플레이 관련해서는 아이폰12 맥스에만 BOE / LGD가 납품, 나머지 3종은 모두 삼디가 공급한다는… 역시 중소형 OLED 패널은 삼성이 갑!)

 

 

추가로 내가 삼성 → Apple 로 뷰를 수정한 게 코로나라는 팬더믹 이후에 소비자들이 과연 누구에게로 쏠릴 것인가, 누가 더 타격을 덜 입을까 였는데 결론은 애플임.

삼성 휴대폰의 2020년 판매 예상치는 3억대에서 지금은 2.6~2.7억대까지 떨어진 상황.

비관적으로 보는 쪽에서는 2.5억대 이하일 수 있다고 보는 시각도 있음.

애플과 달리, 폰을 직접 생산하는 (물론 과거보다 ODM 비중을 높였지만) 삼성 입장에서는 고정비 즉, 인건비 / 시설 및 장비 투자 / 유틸리티 비용 등이 상당하기 때문에 생산량 감소는 가동률 하락으로 이어져 수익성에 엄청난 타격을 준다.

완제품 메이커인 삼성만 바라보는 삼성전자 관련 부품사들은 더 안 좋을 것이라는 것은 당연한 이치.

내가 한 때 집중 투자했던 카메라모듈 쪽만 보더라도 삼성전기, 파트론, 엠씨넥스, 나무가, 파워로직스 등의 주가 흐름은 매우 부진한 편.

 

 

삼성 계열 부품사들은 더 안 좋을 수 밖에 없는 게,

  1. 플래그십이었던 갤럭시S20의 예상치 못한 부진
  2. 이로 인한 재고 부담
  3. 1Q엔 그나마 갤럭시S20 출시 초기로 인한 sell through 등으로 매출 유지했으나 2Q 부터는 매출 급감 예상
  4. 삼성전자의 ODM 확대 기조는 노태문 사장 부임 이후 더욱 강화되고 있음
  5. 갑의 CR 요구를 어쩔 수 없이 들어줄 수 밖에 없는 을의 서러움
  6. 카메라 신기술인 ToF 모듈이 벌써부터 제외될 수 있다는 얘기가 나오는 중
  7. 그나마 카메라 모듈 쪽은 듀얼 → 트리플 → 쿼드로 진화하면서 P라도 증가하고 있으나 다른 부품을 취급하는 부품사들은 그야말로 죽을 분위기.

 

애플 얘기하다가 삼성 얘기를 안 할 수가 없어 잠깐 꺼내봤음.

애플은 이번 코로나 바이러스 사태를 계기로 중국에 편중된 생산 구조를 인도로 shift 하고 있음.

애플의 3대 EMS 업체인 Foxconn, Pegatron, Wistron 은 열심히 인도에 부지를 찾아나서는 중.

 

 

애플 걱정은 굳이 할 필요가 없는 듯.

조정 오면 그냥 기계적으로 분할 매수하면 됨.

애플 얘기는 여기까지.

 

2. LG이노텍

LG는 상대적으로 親 Apple 구조일 수 밖에 없다. 삼성과는 그룹 라이벌 구도인 게 제일 큰 요인일테고 삼성을 제외하면 세계에서 가장 큰 휴대폰 업체가 애플이므로 이들과 손을 잡을 수 밖에.

애플과 관계를 맺고 있는 LG 계열사는 크게 LG Display, LG화학, LG이노텍이 있는데 이 중에 애플에 대한 매출 비중이 가장 큰 곳은 바로 LG이노텍이다.

그것은 LG이노텍의 사업 구조가 애플에 많이 종속되어 있다는 것을 뜻하며 애플이 좋으면 이노텍도 좋고, 애플이 나쁘면 이노텍 또한 나쁘다는 것을 의미.

실제로 사업보고서에 나와 있는 요약 재무 현황을 보더라도 카메라모듈이 속한 광학솔루션 부문의 매출은 전체의 약 66.4%로써 거의 2/3를 차지함.

 

 

앞서 밝혔지만 코로나로 인한 매출 타격이 1Q엔 그리 크지 않았으며, 2Q는 컨센서스가 이미 낮아진 상황. 2Q 후반 혹은 3Q부터는 아이폰12 생산을 시작하면서 다시 한 번 어닝 서프라이즈를 마음 편히 기다릴 수 있는 상황.

난 텔레그램을 통해 2만번 넘게 애플 및 관련 부품사 Buy를 올 1Q 초반부터 외쳤음.

아래는 관련 자료 중 하나.

 

 

내가 수도 없이 말했지만 제조업은 공장이 팽팽 돌아가야 돈이 남는 구조다. 즉, 영업에서 이빠이 수주 받아오면 공장에선 생산 라인 열심히 돌리면 된다.

가동률 극대화를 통해 단위당 제조원가를 얼마만큼 낮출 수 있느냐 → 어찌 보면 간단한데 실제 겪어보면 대단히 어려운 이 고차방정식을 이노텍은 애플이라는 세계 최대 스마트폰 메이커를 고객으로 유치하면서 간단히 해결해버렸다.

애플의 스마트폰 판매량은 다른 제조사들 대비 꾸준한 상황. 그렇기에 Q가 받쳐줌. 더구나 카메라모듈은 싱글 → 듀얼 → 트리플 → 쿼드러플로 고사양화 되면서 P (Price) 가 급격히 커지고 있는 양상.

매출은 P 곱하기 Q 이므로 LG이노텍의 매출은 커질 수 밖에 없는 구조.

모든 사업은 심플하게 봐야 하며, 선택과 집중은 당연한 것.

게다가 이노텍은 한계 사업 / 적자 사업인 LED와 스마트폰용 기판 사업에서 철수하기로 공언한 상황.

 

 

돈 되는 카메라모듈 사업에만 집중하면 수익성 개선은 자연스레 따라오는 것.

증권가의 시각 또한 크게 다르지 않는데 아래는 DB투자 자료임.

 

 

요즘 같은 시국에 끊임 없이 QoQ로, YoY로 매출이 커진다는 거 자체가 대단한 것임.

고객사 비위도 맞춰주고, 끊임없는 단가 인하 요구도 맞춰줘야 하고 기술 개발도 게을리해선 안 됨.

하여튼 2021년까지는 문제 없다고 보임.

다만, 두 가지 문제가 있는데,,,

A. 애플에 지나치게 편중된 사업 구조

B. 2022년 이후 아이템이 약간 마땅치 않다는 것. (쿼드러플 카메라 이후는? 애플이 카메라 구조를 혁신적으로 바꾼다면?)

비에이치도 있지만 최선호는 이노텍이라고 봄.

마지막으로 이노텍 주가 보고 끝.

 

 

3. 아이티엠반도체

내가 원래 아는 회사여서가 아니라 작년에 가장 큰 화제를 몰고 온 주식 중에 하나가 아닌가 하는 아이티엠반도체.

원래 아이티엠반도체가 파워로직스 자회사였는데 이를 모르는 사람들이 상당수.

이 때의 인연 때문에 여기 근무 중인 지인들도 있음.

거두절미하고 주가부터 보고 가자.

 

 

상장된 지 고작 6개월 밖에 안된 회사인데 공모가 26,000원 대비 거의 2.5배 가량 올랐음. 주가 또한 코로나 위기 이전으로 거의 회복된 상태.

이러한 주가 상승은 단순히 애플 벤더여서가 아님.

1)Apple 과의 거래 + 2)기술력이 결합했기에 이러한 모멘텀이 나오는 거지.

애플이 그냥 아무거나 써주나요? 기술력 좋고 원가경쟁력이 있으니까 데리고 가는거지.

아래 그림은 아이티엠반도체 상장 전인, 1년 전인 19년 5/10에 텔레그램에 업데이트했던 내용임.

 

 

아이티엠반도체 때문에 돈 좀 벌었다고 메일 주신 분들이 몇 분 계시다는 건 굳이 비밀로 하지 않겠다.

아이티엠반도체의 주 영역은 배터리 보호회로 (PMP)인데 이게 애플 에어팟에  들어가고 있음.

게다가, 신사업으로 배터리 Pack 제조 사업에 의욕적으로 뛰어 들었다는 것은 이제 비밀도 아닌 사항.

더구나 소형은 이미 꽤 하고 있고 궁극적으로 원하는 건 자동차 팩!

이 얘기는 여기까지만.

기존의 모기업은 파워로직스였으나 이제는 나이스그룹 품에 안기면서 자금력 또한 빵빵한 편.

주가가 어디까지 올라갈 지는 나도 잘 모르겠음.

그냥 이건 it’s up to you.

이건 TMI 일 수 있는데 PMP이건 POC이건 부품이고 에어팟 완제품을 만드는 EMS 업체는 Inventec, Luxshare, (최근에 에어팟 뿐만 아니라 아이폰 또한 생산할 것이라는 루머가 나오는 기업, 역시 상장 기업임) Goertek 등임. 따라서 부품사들은 애플이 아닌, EMS 업체에게 납품을 한다. 당연히 채권 / 채무 관계도 애플이 아닌, EMS 업체와 성립되는 것.

쉽게 말해 실제 납품처가 위의 업체들이므로 ITM반도체 및 이노텍에 물건값을 주는 곳도 애플이 아닌, 폭스콘이나 인벤텍, 고어텍이라는 사실.

그러니까 이런 기업들은 애플보다는 덜 우량하기에  매출채권 회전일수가 단기가 아닌 중, 장기이며 이러한 기업들 투자할 때 추가적으로 사고채권이 없는지, 현금흐름은 괜찮은지를 유심히 봐둬야 한다. 참고할 것.

 

4. Varta (독일 기업, DAX 지수에 상장)

 

이 기업 역시 에어팟 관련주인데 에어팟에 들어가는 배터리를 만드는 유럽계 기업이라는 게 매우 특이할만한 포인트.

두괄식 좋아하는 나니까 주가 그래프부터 보고 가시죠.

 

 

코로나 때문에 떨어졌던 주가가 60 유로 부근에서 저점 찍고 계속 반등하는 중.

텔레 회원 분들껜 이 기업 투자 포인트 계속 말씀 드렸고 나 또한 계속 보유 중.

 

 

올 초부터 이 기업 언급했었고 나 또한 3월부터 분할매수 시작해 지금도 돈 생기면 계속 매수 중.

 

 

LGC는 구형 에어팟에 들어가는 핀셀 타입에 배터리를 공급했었는데 이제는 코인셀로 넘어갔음.

아래는 교보증권 리포트 자료 중에서 발췌.

 

 

이외에도 중국의 EVE에너지라는 배터리 회사도 있음.

주가만 보고 가자.

 

1년 흐름인데 꾸준히 우상향하고 있음. 좋은 기업임.

 

4. 기타

 

상기에서 언급한 EMS 업체 중에 상장 기업도 있어 주가 그래프만이라도 소개한다.

 

 

심천지수에 상장되어 있고 현재는 에어팟 조립 생산 기업. 지금은 아이폰 조립까지 확대하려는 모양새.

폭스콘의 물량을 가져오는 것으로 풀이되며 이와 관련하여 애플과 럭스쉐어는 공식 답변을 회피. (아래는 9to5mac.com에서 발췌)

 

두번째는 Goertek.

역시 에어팟 생산 기업이며 본사는 산둥성의 웨이팡 시에 있음. 

우리가 잘 아는 칭다오 부근이라고 보면 됨.

 

1년 주가 흐름인데 꾸준히 우상향 중.

쓰다보니 글의 내용이 너무 길어졌네요.

사실, 글 쓰는데만 해도 며칠이 걸린 거라…

오늘은 여기까지.

Regards,

Brandon

Post Author: Brandon Kim

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